Overfitting
What it means
Changing your strategy more than the information justifies: because of a small sample, a single hand or an opponent who has already changed. You avoid it by looking at the sample's interval and comparing what the adjustment wins if you're right with what it costs if you're wrong.
Example
Calling a 32 bb overbet because you saw your opponent bluff once (1 of 1: interval from 2.5% to 100%) is overfitting.
Also called: sobreajuste · sobreajustar
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