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Risk of ruin

What it means

The probability of losing your whole bankroll before your winrate takes over. With winrate μ and standard deviation σ per hand and a bankroll BR in bb: exp(−2 × μ × BR / σ²). It goes down with more bankroll and more winrate; it goes up with more deviation.

Example

With 5 bb/100 and a standard deviation of 100 bb/100: 20 buy-ins of 100 bb give 13.53%; 30 buy-ins, 4.98%; 50 buy-ins, 0.67%.

Also called: riesgo de ruina · RoR

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